The global hydrogen budget.
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Springer Nature
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1
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Acknowledgements: This work is part of an international effort coordinated by the Global Carbon Project. We thank M.O. Andreae for calculating the GFAS-burnt biomass data for the period 2008–2017 (not used in the study), based on data provided by J. Kaiser and I. Hüser; J. Kaiser for helping update H2 and VOC emissions from GFAS-burnt biomass based on updated emission factors; S. Sitch for helping us access TRENDY authors and data; B. Zheng for his suggestions on using CO emission data; D.A. Tran for the help in gap-filling early H2 mixing ratio data; R.G. Derwent for assistance with H2 data from the AGAGE network; S. Smith for his advice on using the CEDS emission data; K. Sindelarova for help with biogenic VOC emission products; W. Winiwarter for sharing the ECLIPSE v.6b data; A.S. Darmenov for providing us support and instructions on how to use QFED; L. Emmons and C. Wiedinmyer for help using the FINN fire emission dataset; P. Anthoni for help on LPJ-GUESS BNF data; J. Patterson for sharing H2 concentration data reconstructed from firn air; and X. Yu for helping some data conversions, and S. Karbin for useful insights in soil H2 uptake modelling. D.H. thanks M. Beaudor for her help with the ORCHIDEE model dataset. R.B.J. acknowledges support from the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, GCP Global Methane Office of Stanford, and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, grant GBMF11519. Z.O. acknowledges support from the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, and the College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment at Auburn University, and the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (SCON-10001693). E.K. was supported by the ERTDF (JPMEERF24S12206) of the ERCA by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. G.P. was supported by NOAA cooperative agreements NA17OAR4320101 and NA22OAR4320151. G.P.P. was supported by the Research Council of Norway project TRIFECTA (334811). A.T.A. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC NE/X010236/1). M.W.J. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC, NE/V01417X/1). F.G. was supported by DOE DE-SC0020480 and thanks J. Roscioli, E. Lunny and J. Shorter for guiding the experimental setup. C.W. was supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory under grant no. DE-FE0032285. T.G. and D.H. were supported by the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme of the European Union under grant agreement no. 101137582 (HYway). C.M. was supported by the LEMONTREE (Land Ecosystem Models Based on New Theory, Observations and Experiments) project, supported by Schmidt Sciences. N.C. and P.K.P. are funded by the ERTDF (JPMEERF24S12205) of the ERCA by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. P. Smith acknowledges funding from UK NERC grant no. NE/X013464/1. C.D.J. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by DSIT.
Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2-5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010-2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr-1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr-1, respectively, for 2010-2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01-0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.
Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2-5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010-2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr-1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr-1, respectively, for 2010-2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01-0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.