Prediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model.

Simple item page
dc.creatorSCORE2 Writing Group
dc.creatorEuropean Society of Cardiology’s Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration (CRC) Unit
dc.date2026-03-17T00:31:26Z
dc.date2026-03-11
dc.date.accessioned2026-08-03T04:29:40Z
dc.descriptionBACKGROUND AND AIMS: Heart failure (HF) presents a significant and growing public health challenge. The aim of this study was to develop and validate SCORE2-HF, a model for HF risk estimation in European adults aged over 40-years without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Using data from 25 prospective cohorts (14 countries, 611 778 individuals, 21 818 incident HF events) the sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-HF models were derived including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, body mass-index (BMI), estimated glomerular filtration rate, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), including age at diagnosis and glycated haemoglobin. Using Europe-wide statistics from the World Health Organization and linked health records from five countries (>36 million individuals, 515 466 incident HF events) models were recalibrated to contemporary 10-year and 30-year HF incidence in four European risk regions. SCORE2-HF was validated using data from three further cohorts (three countries; 1 336 824 participants; 36 841 incident HF-events). RESULTS: In the three external validation cohorts, C-indices (95% confidence interval) were 0.827 (0.824-0.829), 0.839 (0.827-0.850) and 0.874 (0.863-0.884). SCORE2-HF risks varied importantly by individual's risk factors, and risk region. For example, in the low-risk region, the average 10-year risk for 70-year-old individuals with zero versus four adverse risk factors (smoking, T2DM, hypertension and BMI >30 kg/m2), was 8% versus 24% in men and 6% versus 20% in women. By contrast, in the very high-risk region, average SCORE2-HF risk with four adverse risk factors was 59% in 70-year-old men or women. CONCLUSIONS: SCORE2-HF - a model derived, recalibrated and validated to estimate 10-year and 30-year risk of incident HF across European countries - may enhance the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing HF.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifier0195-668X
dc.identifierhttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/400138
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.128424
dc.identifier1522-9645
dc.identifier.urihttps://repo.dare.co.zw/handle/123456789/190061
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherOxford University Press (OUP)
dc.publisherDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit
dc.publisherhttps://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehag154
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences
dc.subject3201 Cardiovascular Medicine and Haematology
dc.subject3202 Clinical Sciences
dc.subjectPatient Safety
dc.subjectAging
dc.subjectDiabetes
dc.subjectWomen's Health
dc.subjectHypertension
dc.subjectHeart Disease
dc.subjectPrevention
dc.subjectCardiovascular
dc.subject2.1 Biological and endogenous factors
dc.subjectCardiovascular
dc.subject3 Good Health and Well Being
dc.titlePrediction of incident heart failure in individuals without prior cardiovascular disease: the SCORE2-HF risk model.
dc.typeArticle

Files

Collections

University of Cambridge Apollo